To read the full essay, subscribe or buy the book. But how likely is any of this to make a real difference in Iraq? This book is worth reading just for Hugh white quarterly essay 39. The answers to these questions cannot be taken for granted.
Moreover, as David himself acknowledges, security assistance alone makes no difference without wider social, political and economic reforms, and what chance is there of those in Iraq today?
This correspondence featured in Quarterly Essay 59, Faction Man. Of course David might be suggesting that we are in danger of turning our nation into a police state even if the threat does not warrant it. This is a confronting essay, but it lays out the issues in clear and simple terms and its arguments are always solid and well referenced.
It very rarely works. David offers four answers in the passage starting on page Another sad and costly failure in Iraq would not bring it back.
Better, then, to leave the Iraqis and their neighbours to sort this one out without our help.
As so often sincethe potential for terrorism to pose an existential threat is assumed, when it needs to be demonstrated. I suspect that this is the real reason why so many in the West find what is happening there so disconcerting. Like Tony Abbott, though apparently for different reasons, David sees ISIS as a deadly threat that must be eliminated, and like Abbott he argues that the West, including Australia, should commit armed forces to do this.
For a long time now, people have assumed that Western training and example can turn ill-trained, under-motivated and unpaid soldiers into war winners. This too is a legitimate concern, but is it a big enough problem to warrant a large-scale military intervention in Iraq and Syria? This has significant implications for Australia and the political elite is not adequately addressing the issue.
That depends on how seriously these other insurgencies affect our interests, and how much difference ISIS support makes to them. The other question we have to consider is how likely it is that the military intervention David advocates would succeed in destroying ISIS. These projections are very good to think with.
ISIS itself is only a symptom and a consequence of bigger trends that are destroying the old post-Ottoman regional order in the Middle East, and there is no reason at all to believe that removing ISIS will restore that order, or prevent further instability and conflict.
In particular, he thinks Western military advisers need to accompany Iraqi forces into the fighting on the front-line.
But as he says, this is not really a strategic threat to our societies, because the numbers killed are quite low. ISIS does not really threaten Australia or the West strategically in any substantial way, but it does threaten our assumption that the West can and should control what happens in the region.
The difference is that David thinks we need to be doing much more in Iraq than Abbott has so far signed up to.
As White explains, there are no easy answers. It would not be the first time that has happened, after all. Of course it is a problem that needs to be taken seriously, but I think David agrees that it is best dealt with by good intelligence, policing and outreach here at home rather than by trying to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
He is careful to argue that this would not be another counterinsurgency campaign like that in Afghanistan. This is indeed a major concern, and raises much more significant issues globally and for the West specifically than the other reasons David offers for another military intervention in the Middle East.
In the bulk of this essay book White projects possible futures for Asia, Australia, and America based on different decisions China, America and Australia might make about strategy.
In a changing world, torn between an increasingly confident China and a United St The quick growth of China from a backwater to a great power in the world is been one of the central geopolitical issues of today, and the single greatest threat to the post-Cold War American hegemony yet how to deal with the new status quo has not been adequately addressed by western nations.
So it is very unlikely that a larger Western intervention would do any good, and quite likely that it would do real harm, making the situation even worse. This argument is compelling only if we accept that the terrorist threat would otherwise be serious enough to warrant the kind of draconian measures he goes on to describe.
But that has not been established. But it also presents a policy argument about what should be done next.
It should be considered essential reading for anyone interested in one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century.In the September Quarterly Essay, Hugh White considers Australia’s place between Beijing and Washington. As the power balance shifts, and China’s influence grows, what might this mean for the nation?Throughout our history, we have counted first on British then on American primacy in Asia.
Aug 30, · Quarterly Essay 39 Power Shift has 37 ratings and 3 reviews. Mick said: The quick growth of China from a backwater to a great power in the world is been /5(3).
Hugh White (born ) is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre of the Australian National University in Canberra, White, H.
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In the third Quarterly Essay ofHugh White considers Australia’s future between Beijing and Washington. As the pow.Download